Guadalupe-San Antonio Basin | EnviroAI — Prototype
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⚠ Prototype —
last verified 2026-05-07.
Live data: 10 USGS surface gauges (when their API is reachable).
All other values are dated reference snapshots; see the
Verification tab.
WIE v1.8 — 10 live USGS gauges + dated reference snapshot for the Edwards Aquifer | LLM-assisted query (Perplexity Sonar Pro) over the current state | Empirical surrogate functions, not physics models
About this prototype
v1.8 · verified 2026-05-07
What this is
The Watershed Intelligence Engine (WIE) is a single-page demo of a planned
decision-support platform for the Guadalupe-San Antonio basin. It is a
prototype, intended to make a sponsor-facing case for the full
platform — not a production system. Most numeric claims on the page are
either live USGS gauge readings or dated reference snapshots, and every
number should be verified against its primary source before use in
decision-making.
What is currently working
10 USGS surface gauges — live discharge from the
USGS Water Data API (new OGC endpoint with legacy fallback), refreshed
every 15 minutes.
Edwards Aquifer reference snapshot — J-17, J-27,
Comal, San Marcos, and SA/Uvalde pool stages, refreshed manually
against edwardsaquifer.org and (when deployed) hourly via
/api/eaa-snapshot.
WIE chat — one Perplexity Sonar Pro call per user
message, given the current page state in its system prompt.
Watershed map — Leaflet basemap with USGS gauge,
spring, and well markers (popups read live state).
EAA Critical Period Management table — renders
from a single source-verified CPM_STAGES constant.
What is not yet built
Aquifer Intelligence module (no MODFLOW / GSFLOW coupling).
Streamflow Prediction module (no LSTM / NWM coupling).
Water Rights Compliance module (static reference figures only).
Estuary Health module (3-line salinity formula, no calibrated bay model, no TPWD station feed).
Drought Forecasting module (cessation probability removed pending calibration).
The "physics-based" surrogate functions in this codebase are 3- to 5-line
piecewise-linear or scalar formulas (predictComalFlow(),
computeCessationDays(), estimateSalinity()), not
calibrated hydrologic models. The Spring Flow surrogate is a known
overestimate at low J-17 values. The cessation-probability values previously
shown (58%, 82%, etc.) were asserted without derivation and have been removed.
See the Verification
tab for the full data-stream inventory and methodology notes.
Authoring credits
Jed Anderson — EnviroAI ·
Jim Blackburn, J.D. — Co-Director, SSPEED Center, Rice University.
Co-developers.
Contact
Questions, corrections, or interest in the planned platform: contact Jed Anderson at EnviroAI.
Please flag any number on the page that you believe is wrong — the prototype is
intentionally honest about its limitations and we will correct issues quickly.
System Status — Loading...
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J-17 Level (San Antonio Pool)
ⓘ
638.4ft amsl
Snapshot 2026-05-07 · 10-day avg 637.7 ft · Stage 5 trigger: 625 ft
J-27 Level (Uvalde Pool)
ⓘ
834.9ft amsl
Snapshot 2026-05-07 · 10-day avg 834.7 ft · Stage 5 trigger: 840 ft
Triggers and reductions per EAA Critical Period Management Plan
(data/EAA_CPM_Plan.pdf), verified 2026-05-07.
Stage activation uses the EAA's 10-day rolling average.
Cessation Probability:
model not calibrated(see methodology)
J-17 above Stage 5: — ft
Paper Water (unused): 57%(GSA WAM Run 3, 2025)
2022 Precip: 12.38" vs 30.7" avg
(NOAA NCEI Tex Div 6)
⚠ Comal Springs Cessation Risk (model-derived)
At the current decline rate of 0.03 ft/day, the
computeCessationDays(j17) surrogate projects J-17 reaching the 620 ft
cessation threshold in approximately
— days
(normal scenario) without significant recharge. Under a dry scenario (0.04 ft/day),
the surrogate gives — days.
The last known cessation of Comal Springs lasted 144 days (1956 drought of record).
Method: linear extrapolation `(j17 − 620) / rate`. No recharge events, no aquifer storage,
no pumping changes. Treat as an order-of-magnitude reference, not a forecast.
Victoria Gauge (USGS 08176500)
—cfs
Guadalupe at Victoria | SB3 minimum: 150 cfs bay
San Antonio Bay
Stressed
Salinity elevated | Whooping Crane food chain at risk
Active Drought Stage
ⓘ
Extreme
Per PDSI -4.2 snapshot · 1956-analog framing
Spring Flow Surrogate — J-17 to Comal piecewise function
Empirical surrogate — not calibrated
Scenario Parameters
J-17 Aquifer Level (ft amsl)638.4 ft
Pumping Rate (% of permitted)65%
Recharge Rate (% of average)55%
Time Horizon (days)180 days
Predicted Comal Flow—
Days to Cessation (normal)—
Days to Cessation (dry)—
J-17 → Comal Springs Response Curve
⚠ Model Calibration Note
The J-17 → Comal Springs curve in this prototype is a 4-line piecewise-linear
function (see predictComalFlow()), not a calibrated hydrologic model.
It systematically overestimates flow at low J-17 levels — e.g., at the 2026-03-27 reading
of J-17 = 625.6 ft it returned ~94 cfs while EAA measured 57 cfs.
The real aquifer–spring relationship depends on pumping distribution, recharge
patterns, and aquifer heterogeneity, none of which are represented here.
A physics-based replacement (e.g., a PINN trained on the J-17/Comal record) is on the
v2.0 roadmap but is not built. Treat the curve as an order-of-magnitude reference,
not a forecast.
Cessation Timeline — J-17 Projections
Scenario Projections (90-day)
Spring Flow Thresholds (cfs)
Current Comal: — cfs(snapshot)
Cessation threshold: <30 cfs
Species critical: 50 cfs
Texas Wild-Rice: 80 cfs
Historical avg: 288 cfs
Watershed Map — Guadalupe-San Antonio Basin
Leaflet Interactive
USGS Gauge Network
10 active gauges on the Guadalupe, San Antonio, Comal, San Marcos, and Blanco rivers.
Live discharge from the USGS Water Data API when reachable, refresh every 15 minutes;
falls back to last-known values per gauge if a request fails.
Spring Monitoring
Comal (161 cfs), San Marcos (92 cfs),
San Pedro, and Hueco Springs. Snapshot 2026-05-07.
EAA Index Wells
J-17 (San Antonio Pool): 638.4 ft amsl
J-27 (Uvalde Pool): 834.9 ft amsl
Snapshot 2026-05-07 · EAA daily readings.
Water Availability Model (WAM) Analysis
4 Basin Study
Water Rights Inventory — GSA Basin
Basin
Total Rights
Active (used)
Unused
% Unused
Guadalupe Upper
612
278
334
55%
San Antonio River
489
198
291
60%
Medina/Frio
198
92
106
54%
Comal/Blanco
142
55
87
61%
GSA Total
1,441
623
822
57%
Paper Water — Unused Diversion Authority
57%
Unused Rights
822
Paper Water Rights
6.8M
AF Unused Authority
Paper Water Analysis
57% of water rights in the GSA basin are unused ("paper water"). Total unused diversion authority: approximately 6.8 million AF. Run 3 (Full Authorization) WAM scenario shows that fully exercising all rights would reduce downstream flows to near zero during drought conditions, creating significant ecological and legal risk under environmental flow standards.
Water Rights Distribution by Basin
Flow Reduction Under CPM Stages
WAM Run 3 — Full Authorization Scenario Analysis
Control Point
Location
Current Flow
Run 3 Flow
Reduction
SB3 Compliant
Victoria (Guadalupe)
Victoria, TX
— cfs
45 cfs
—
No
Gonzales (San Marcos)
Gonzales, TX
180 cfs
28 cfs
-84%
No
New Braunfels (Comal)
New Braunfels, TX
— cfs
12 cfs
—
No
Cuero (Guadalupe lower)
Cuero, TX
290 cfs
38 cfs
-87%
No
Withdrawal Envelope Calculator
Interactive Model
Envelope Parameters
Total Flow at Victoria (cfs)108 cfs
Senior Water Rights (cfs)180 cfs
Environmental Flow (SB3, cfs)50 cfs
Downstream Needs (cfs)40 cfs
Available Withdrawal Envelope—
⚠ Zero envelope — all available flow is obligated. No new withdrawals can be authorized under SB3 and senior rights obligations.
Stacked Withdrawal Envelope
Historical Drought Comparison — Available Envelope
1956 Drought of Record
Peak deficit–843 cfs
Comal cessation144 days
J-17 minimum614 ft
2011 Drought
Peak deficit–312 cfs
Comal minimum142 cfs
J-17 minimum629 ft
Current (snapshot 2026-05-07)
Victoria flow (live USGS)— cfs
Comal flow (EAA snapshot)— cfs
J-17 level (EAA snapshot)— ft
Estuary Reference — San Antonio Bay
Salinity from 3-line formula — reference only
Bay Salinity
—ppt
Optimal: 15–25 ppt | Stressed: >28 ppt
Freshwater Inflow
—cfs
SB3 target: 800 cfs seasonal min
Whooping Crane Count
557birds
2024-25 USFWS Aransas NWR census
Bay Health Index
42/100
Below 50 = stressed ecosystem
Salinity Model Parameters
Freshwater Inflow (cfs)108 cfs
Evaporation Rate (mm/day)5.2 mm/day
SeasonSpring
Estimated Bay Salinity—
Blue Crab Habitat—
Ecosystem Status—
Salinity vs. Freshwater Inflow
Whooping Crane Food Chain — Bay Ecosystem
Freshwater Inflow
→
Bay Salinity 15–25 ppt
→
Wolfberry & Aquatic Plants
→
Blue Crab Population
→
Whooping Crane Survival (557 birds)
⚠ Chain at Risk
Current freshwater inflow is below the seasonal SB3 minimum. At low inflows, elevated salinity reduces blue crab habitat. 557 Whooping Cranes (2024-25 census) depend on bay food availability during Oct–Nov migration peak. ESA Section 7 consultation trigger possible.
SB3 Inflow Target Tracker — Monthly (cfs)
Oct–Feb values: estimated from USGS 08176500 monthly averages. Mar onward: live API data.
Target line: SB3 subsistence minimum (150 cfs equivalent monthly volume). SB3 targets per TCEQ 30 TAC 298E.
Bay Health Indicators
Endangered Species — Flow Thresholds Monitor
8 of 11 At Risk
Species vs Flow Thresholds
Risk Distribution
Comal Springs Species (Current: — cfs, snapshot)
Comal Springs Riffle Beetle
Heterelmis comalensis
Flow threshold: >40 cfs at Comal Springs
Current: — cfs
Near Risk
Comal Springs Dryopid Beetle
Stygoparnus comalensis
Flow threshold: >40 cfs at Comal Springs
Current: — cfs
Near Risk
Fountain Darter
Etheostoma fonticola
Flow threshold: >60 cfs combined spring flow
Current: — cfs Comal
—
Peck's Cave Amphipod
Stygobromus pecki
Flow threshold: Consistent aquifer recharge
J-17 must remain >630 ft | Current: — ft
—
San Marcos Springs Species (Current: — cfs, snapshot)
Texas Wild-Rice
Zizania texana
Flow threshold: >80 cfs at San Marcos
Current: — cfs
—
Texas Blind Salamander
Eurycea rathbuni
Flow threshold: Aquifer level >640 ft (J-17)
Current: — ft
—
San Marcos Salamander
Eurycea nana
Flow threshold: >40 cfs at San Marcos Springs
Current: — cfs
—
Guadalupe River Mussels (Federally Endangered — All 3 Endemic)
False Spike
Fusconaia mitchelli
Flow threshold: >50 cfs continuous baseflow in occupied reaches
Flow threshold: >50 cfs continuous baseflow in occupied reaches
Endemic to Guadalupe River basin — found nowhere else on Earth
Current: Habitat under stress from low flows
At Risk
Estuary-Dependent Species
Whooping Crane
Grus americana
Inflow threshold: >800 cfs seasonal bay inflow
Current: — cfs (severely below)
At Risk
ESA Section 7 Consultation Required
8 of 11 federally listed species face elevated risk under current conditions.
The GBRA Habitat Conservation Plan (in development) covers the three Guadalupe mussels
and Whooping Crane. Any federal action affecting flows requires formal Biological Opinion
from USFWS.
Evapotranspiration increase since 1980 due to warming
Temperature Anomaly
+2.1°F
Above 1950–1980 baseline for the basin
Planned Capability Roadmap
9 modules — 2 partial, 7 not yet built
⚠ What this tab is
These are the planned modules for a future Watershed Intelligence Engine. Most are
not yet built in this prototype — the cards describe scope, not
shipped functionality. There is no agent runtime, orchestrator, or background worker
in this codebase. The only modules with any live element today are the Spring Flow
module (live USGS gauge for Comal/San Marcos via the New Braunfels and San Marcos
stream gauges) and the Species Protection module (same live USGS gauges feeding
hardcoded thresholds).
Aquifer Intelligence module
● Not yet built
Planned: real-time groundwater monitoring with a calibrated MODFLOW or GSFLOW coupling between aquifer storage and spring discharge. Today the page uses a 4-line piecewise-linear surrogate; there is no MODFLOW model or live coupling.
Streamflow Prediction module
● Not yet built
Planned: short- and seasonal-horizon streamflow forecasts (e.g., LSTM ensemble or coupling to NOAA NWM). No model is implemented in this prototype.
Water Rights Compliance module
● Not yet built
Planned: WAM-based priority, diversion tracking, and SB3 compliance monitoring. The page renders static reference figures (1,441 water rights, 57% paper water) from TCEQ WAM Run 3; no live diversion tracking or priority engine is implemented.
Spring Flow module
● Partial
Live: USGS gauges for the Comal River at New Braunfels (08169000) and San Marcos River at San Marcos (08170500), refreshed every 15 minutes when reachable. The headline EAA spring-flow figures shown elsewhere on the page are from a dated snapshot, not from these gauges. No alerting is wired.
Estuary Health module
● Not yet built
Planned: San Antonio Bay salinity, SB3 inflow, blue-crab habitat, and Whooping Crane risk. Today the page runs a 3-line salinity formula (`estimateSalinity()`); no calibrated bay model, no TPWD salinity-station feed.
Species Protection module
● Partial
Live: USGS gauge feeds (above) drive flow values shown beside hardcoded threshold cards for 11 federally listed species. No jeopardy index, no Section 7 trigger automation; status badges are recomputed from current flow vs. published thresholds.
Drought Forecasting module
● Not yet built
Planned: probabilistic cessation forecasts using historical analogs, ENSO, and CPC outlooks. Today the page does linear extrapolation `(j17 − 620) / rate` for three scenarios; cessation probability values were previously hardcoded and have been removed.
Climate Analysis module
● Not yet built
Planned: long-term trends, CMIP6 downscaling, ET amplification. The 130-year PDSI bar chart on the Climate & Hydrology tab is a static NCEI series; no downscaling or projection engine is implemented.
Legal & Policy module
● Not yet built
Planned: water-law context, priority curtailment, SB3 compliance, ESA Section 7 timeline tracking. Not implemented — reference text only.
Note on cost figures
Per-module cost estimates and the prior “~$1.06M to reach full operational status”
figure have been removed from this view pending a sponsor-facing budget the user
wants to publish. Treat scope, not dollar amounts, as the deliverable here.
Data Verification & Methodology
8 Data Sources
Primary Data Sources
Source
Data Type
Update Frequency
Last Verified
Status
USGS Water Data
Stream gauge flows (10 sites)
15-min
2026-05-07
Live
EAA (Edwards Aquifer Authority)
J-17, J-27 index wells, spring flows
Daily — published as a snapshot here, no live fetch
2026-05-07
Snapshot
TCEQ WAM
Water rights, diversion records, WAM runs
Periodic updates
2025-12-01
Verified
TWDB Water Data
Aquifer storage, water use, drought indices
Monthly
2026-02-15
Verified
NOAA NCEI / CPC
PDSI (Tex Climate Div 6), precipitation
Monthly — published as a snapshot here
2026-05-07
Snapshot
GRACE-FO Satellite
Aquifer storage anomaly (-6.4 km³)
Monthly
2025-11-01
90-day lag
USFWS Species Data
ESA listings, critical habitat, flow thresholds
As updated
2025-09-15
Verified
TPWD Estuary Data
Bay salinity, Whooping Crane census, SB3
Seasonal
2026-01-10
Verified
Methodology Notes & Known Limitations
Component
Status
Notes
Spring Flow Prediction
⚠ Known Overestimate
Simplified curve predicts ~94 cfs at J-17=625.6; actual is 57 cfs.
Calibration factor of ~0.6 needed. PINN replacement planned for v2.0.
Salinity Model
● Simplified
Single-box model for San Antonio Bay. Does not capture spatial salinity gradients or tidal mixing. ±15% accuracy estimated.
Withdrawal Envelope
✓ Adequate
Mass balance approach with SB3 environmental flow standards. Senior rights priority ordering simplified to basin-level aggregates.
Drought Projections
● Probabilistic
Based on historical decline rate distributions (1940–2026). Does not account for future pumping changes or climate non-stationarity.
Species Thresholds
✓ Literature-based
Flow thresholds sourced from USFWS Recovery Plans and peer-reviewed literature. Represent minimum viable habitat flows, not optimal.
WAM Analysis
⚠ Aggregated
Individual rights aggregated to basin level. Run 3 results are order-of-magnitude estimates pending full WAM run with current water use data.
GRACE Storage Change
⚠ 90-day Lag
GRACE-FO data has ~90-day processing lag. -6.4 km³ value from November 2025. Current deficit likely larger.
v1.8 Verification Checklist (verified 2026-05-07)
✓ J-17 (638.4 ft) and J-27 (834.9 ft) re-fetched from edwardsaquifer.org/display-our-readings/ on 2026-05-07. Stamped as a snapshot, not live.
✓ Comal (161 cfs) and San Marcos (92 cfs) springs re-fetched same source, same day. Stamped as snapshot.
✓ CPM stage triggers and reductions corrected from prior incorrect values: SA Pool reductions are now 20/30/35/40/44 (was 20/25/30/35/44); Uvalde Pool triggers are now 850/845/842/840 (was 845/842/836/832). Source: EAA CPM Plan PDF and EAA CPM landing page, verified 2026-05-07.
✓ Stage activation now uses the EAA's 10-day rolling average, matching their published methodology.
⚠ Spring flow predictor (`predictComalFlow()`) is a 4-line piecewise-linear surrogate, not a calibrated model. Documented inline.
⚠ Cessation-probability values (previously 58%/82%/etc.) had no derivation. Removed; placeholder reads "model not yet calibrated."
⚠ PDSI value (-4.2) is a snapshot from NOAA NCEI Tex Climate Div 6 (Apr 2026), not a live fetch. Single source of truth via `setText('stat-pdsi', ...)`.
✓ 10 USGS surface gauges remain genuinely live via the new OGC API with legacy fallback.
✓ Tab 11 renamed from "AI Agents" to "Planned Capability Roadmap"; static cards relabeled to reflect actual build status.
System Data Streams
Stream
Source
Update Freq
Status
Connection
J-17 Well Level
Edwards Aquifer Authority
Daily (EAA)
Snapshot — refreshed 2026-05-07
edwardsaquifer.org/display-our-readings/ — no live integration in this build
Loaded from data/GSA_Water_Rights_Detailed_Analysis.csv
SB3 Flow Standards
TCEQ (30 TAC 298E)
Fixed
Static reference
Rules adopted Aug 2012
GRACE Groundwater
NASA/GFZ
Monthly
Reference (2025 value)
Rateb et al. 2020 baseline — not refreshed
Bay Salinity
TPWD / TCEQ stations
n/a
Not Connected
Salinity figures derive from `estimateSalinity()`, a 3-line formula
MODFLOW / GSFLOW Aquifer Model
TWDB GAM
—
Not Connected
No groundwater model in this build
NWM Streamflow Forecast
NOAA National Water Model
Hourly
Not Connected
water.noaa.gov — planned for a future build
Soil Moisture
NASA SMAP
2-3 day
Not Connected
Requires Earthdata auth — planned
Precipitation / ET
NOAA / TexMesonet
Hourly
Not Connected
texmesonet.org API — planned
WIE Chat (LLM)
Perplexity Sonar Pro via /api/wie-chat
On query
Live (when PERPLEXITY_API_KEY is set)
One Sonar Pro call per user message; not multi-step
Live Real-time data connected
Static Loaded at build time
Planned Identified for v2.0
Not Connected Requires investment
API Connectivity Test
Click "Test API Connections" to verify live data endpoints.
Key References
1. Edwards Aquifer Authority. (2026). Critical Period Management Plan — Stage Thresholds. EAA Technical Report.
2. USGS. (2026). National Water Information System — Guadalupe-San Antonio Basin gauges. NWIS.
3. TCEQ. (2024). Water Availability Model (WAM) — Guadalupe-San Antonio River Basin. TCEQ Publication.
4. USFWS. (2022). Species Biological Opinions — Comal/San Marcos Springs Complex. FWS Region 2.
5. TWDB. (2026). Texas Aquifer Storage Update — Edwards Aquifer. TWDB Technical Note.
6. Wurbs, R.A. (2005). Texas Water Availability Modeling System. TCEQ Report UM-50.
7. Falcone, J.A. (2011). GAGES-II: Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow. USGS DS-759.
8. Longley, G. (1981). The Edwards Aquifer: Earth's Most Diverse Groundwater Ecosystem. International Journal of Speleology.
💧 WIE Assistant
LLM-assisted query (Perplexity Sonar Pro) over the current page state
Falls back to a small rule-based engine if the Sonar API is not configured. Always verify numbers against the primary source.